"The Definition of Insanity is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results" - Albert Einstein

Sunday, February 27, 2011

T- Minus 7 Hours

Today's the Day. The day I've been waiting for for 33 days. Oscar Day. I'm ready. I've seen the films (or at least a good 70%). I've read the articles. I've watched the Guilds. I've made my bulletin board. I've filled out all four of my ballots. And now I just have to wait 7 hours until judgement.

I have to say, I'm relieved. As much as I love Academy Award season, sometimes I'm not sure it's worth the anguish. I rarely agree personally with what the Academy picks as its winners, and I've lost and regained too many friends over what's going to be Best Picture (Sorry Gus).

But after tonight, I get to put it all behind me. Whatever is going to happen will happen. And I'm ok with that. I just need the closure.

With that said, here is my breakdown of the awards tonight, by category.

Leading Actor: This category is a bit of a no brainer. Colin Firth for the King's Speech is gonna take home the golden statue, no questions asked. And he is completely deserved. Not only does he display some major vocal chops, he's overdue, and his role as a man struggling to communicate with the public in the dawn of new media is impressive. I'll admit that in my fantasy ballot I picked Jesse Eisenberg for the Social Network, but I have no hope of him winning and I will have no qualms with Firth when he does. For what it's worth though, I was extremely impressed with Eisenberg's take on the role of the man struggling to communicate with the public in the dawn of new media.

Lead Actress: Two Words- Natalie Portman. Also- Black Swan. She's great. And she's 29 years old, which makes her the age females are most likely to win Academy Awards when nominated. And her haunting turn as a ballerina is impressive in acting and dancing. My apologies to all of the Bening fans out there, but I'm throwing all my weight behind Queen Amidala on this one.

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale for The Fighter. It's an amazing movie, and his role in it is what makes it the most phenomenal. He's got the momentum on this too, and after he wins, I'm going to have a celebratory watching of Newsies.

Supporting Actress: Another win for The Fighter. Melissa Leo killed the role of the mother in this film. She's absolutely phenomenal in it. I will say, there's a chance that some of her politicking will get her in trouble and the statue could go too newcomer Hailee Steinfeld for her role in True Grit. It's possible, but it's much more likely that she will fall into the Keisha Castle-Hughes trap and will only go home with the memories of getting to meet Johnny Depp. Not a bad night if you ask me. For the record though, I've picked Helena Bonham Carter in my fantasy ballot. If only so Bellatrix can win one for Voldie.

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3. Another no brainer. It's one of the best films of the year, and any movie in which my whole family cries in the theatre and then on the car ride home is worthy of an Oscar in my book.

Art Direction: I'm going with The King's Speech on this one. It's got the momentum and the historical edge to beat out my fantasy pick, Inception. This will be a repeated theme of the night.

Cinematography: Tricky category. I've picked Black Swan to win for my ballot at home, The Social Network to win for my Meshuganotes ballot and Inception for my fantasy ballot. I'm really hoping for Black Swan to take home the win on this one, because the handheld camera work in it is stunning throughout the entire film, but that being said, I'd love the upward pans of the Social Network to take home a win too. I picked Inception for the fantasy win because it won't win much tonight at all, and it will most certainly have deserved some.

Costume Design: The King's Speech. Period Pieces. Momentum. Could also go to True Grit. If it goes to The Tempest or Alice in Wonderland, I may cry.

Directing: Ok, I hate this category. Because I wholeheartedly believe with every inch of my being that Chris Nolan should win this award. And he's not even nominated. That being said, it seems pretty clear that Tom Hooper will win this for The King's Speech. He certainly is the safest bet for the pool. I'm however dreaming of a David Fincher win for The Social Network. It wouldn't be unheard of, but it would certainly be an underdog victory. In the 1 in a million chance that Darren Aronofsky gets a win for Black Swan, I would be pretty happy also, because that movie is directorially amazing.

Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shot. Just because I'm a huge Banksy fan.
Documentary Short: Poster Girl. Random Pick.
Animated Short Film: Day & Night. Super Cute.
Live Action Short: Wish 143. Random Pick

Film Editing: The Social Network. It won the Guild award, and while yes, I have a soft spot in my heart for this film, it should win this award.

Foreign Language: Incendies. Random Pick.

Makeup: I guess I'm going with The Wolfman, because it has the coolest title. Also, I completely agree with not nominating Alice in Wonderland for this category. That movie blew orange and neon chunks.

Original Score: Trent Reznor and The Social Network. It's so freaking good. I'm literally listening to it while I write this. Amazing use of digitalization and music.

Original Song: "If I Rise" from 127 Hours. The other songs are cute (except for the Country Strong song, which is terrible) but this one's my fave.

Sound Editing: I'm picking Inception for the win and for the fantasy ballot. Inception should have been nominated for a lot more editing awards. But it will win this one. It's too good not too.

Sound Mixing: The Social Network. The club scene. The party scene. You know what's cool? A billion dollars. And this film winning a sound mixing Oscar.

Visual Effects: Inception. Duh.

Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin's dialogue in this film is absolutely the best part of the whole damn movie. It's snappy, it's perfect, and it's just too well written to be real life. But it is the smart, well written dialogue I'm trying to emulate in my own life. Congrats on the Oscar ahead of time Mr. Sorkin. It is very much deserved.

Original Screenplay: Yes, the King's Speech will probably win for this as well. Yes I've picked it for my Oscar Ballot. BORING. I'm going with Inception for the fantasy ballot. It rules, and the story line of that movie is one of the best aspects. I'm convinced it would win if it didn't have the line "We have to go one level deeper!" Oh well, nothing is perfect.

Best Picture: Ok, for everyone out there reading this to try to win your Oscar pool, pick The King's Speech. It's going to win. It's a heartfelt, brilliantly acted and directed piece of film and history, and it won all of the important Guild awards. Black Swan can't win because it's too young for the voting members, so it should just enjoy the nomination of being honored. The Fighter is probably a better film that the King's Speech in my opinion, and if you ask me, it would have been in the running should there have only been 5 nominees in this category as well. Same goes for The Kids Are All Right. Poignant, Current and Depressing usually makes for a Best Picture win, but it's gonna get edged out by other great films this year. Inception, 127 Hours, True Grit, Toy Story 3 and Winter's Bone are all quality, but they are really only included in this category because of the new 10 nominees rule. But for what it's worth, I'm going to go with The Social Network. Because it is hands down the Best Picture of the Year.

Good luck with your ballots everyone, and watch for some live tweeting of the Awards Ceremony from my Twitter Account. @hirschybar92

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